Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano Betting Markets
Perhaps the Europa Conference League final will be more competitive than the odds suggest. Crystal Palace won the FA Cup last season but they haven't really been tested in UEFA's third competitions, with Oliver Glasner also having to contend with the departure of Eberechi Eze last summer along with captain Marc Guehi leaving for Manchester City in January.
The bookies give Palace a roughly 50% chance of winning this final in normal time, although they sit a lowly fifteenth in the top-flight standings at the time of writing. They've only landed four wins at Selhurst Park all season, drawing nine of their clashes and losing a further five. On the road, they've been more successful with seven wins and two draws.
Scoring goals has been a relative problem considering they only just average more than a goal per game in the Premier League, with Shakhtar Donetsk easily overcome in the semi-finals. The Eagles claimed a 3-1 success in Poland before a straightforward 2-1 win over the Ukrainian side although this represents a tougher assignment.
Rayo Vallecano cannot be readily dismissed and they sit higher in the La Liga standings than their opponents. The Spanish side were able to claim a 1-0 home win over Strasbourg in the semi-final first leg before enjoying the same winning scoreline in the return leg in France. That robust defensive display will give them confidence that the job can be completed in Germany.
Previously to this, Inigo Perez's side raced into a 3-0 first leg lead against AEK Athens before the Greek side managed to haul themselves level on aggregate before Los Franjirrojos were able to find a winning goal. They sit tenth in the table domestically but only ten victories have been secured across thirty-five clashes.
Goals Under/Over
Both teams stand on the verge of history and Under 2.5 Goals is trading as the warm favourite on this two-way market. There's an obvious case for this being a low-scoring encounter. Not least as Rayo Vallecano have the blueprint of beating Strasbourg 1-0 on two different occasions, with Inigo Perez hoping that his team can hold tight against a Palace team not renowned for goals.
The Eagles are also stubborn from a defensive point-of-view and have been focused on this European competition for the past few weeks. They didn't need to be watertight to get the better of Shakhtar Donetsk although many of their recent clashes have involved goals. This includes a 2-2 draw against Everton and a 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth.
On the flip side, the past four Rayo Vallecano matches in all competitions have featured two goals or less and perhaps their strategy will be to keep the opposition at bay.
BTTS
The bookies don't think there's much between BTTS Yes and BTTS No in the betting market. If you go back to Vallecano's 1-0 home defeat against Samsunspor in March, then their previous twelve matches have seen BTTS No happen nine times. It's a high ratio and suggests that a low-scoring clash could well be on the cards in Leipzig.
Even a recent 1-1 draw against Girona saw the game goalless until the final few minutes of the exchange, with Alemao's goal cancelled out at the death. Palace's situation is slightly different in recent weeks, with four of the past five games in all competitions featuring BTTS Yes and perhaps they'll take the handbrake off here.
Glasner has some firepower in his ranks and a recent 2-2 draw against Everton saw the Eagles register eight shots on target but also allow the Toffees six efforts on goal. There were a further eleven shots off target across the ninety minutes and perhaps a Palace win combined with BTTS Yes could be worth pursuing if you fancy the London side to claim the spoils.
First Goalscorer
Jean-Philippe Mateta has had his difficulties with injuries this season, although the Frenchman returned to the scoresheet against Everton recently. The forward ended a six-game run without a goal and will now be kept fresh for this final. He has sixteen in all competitions for the season and may be on penalty duties in Leipzig.
Ismaila Sarr has enjoyed a successful season in front of goal and has twenty-three for the campaign, with the former Watford man having scored in three of the past four encounters. He's been a regular scorer for Palace in recent months and perhaps he can be included in Bet Builders when it comes to anytime scorers.
Alemao is probably the most likely player to find the net for the Spanish team, with the Brazilian having notched four goals in his previous five encounters. The forward has found some form after making a move from Mexican club Pachuca last autumn, with Sergio Camello another one for the shortlist.
The Spaniard has three goals across his past six matches and could offer a threat against a Palace team who simply aren't as tight defensively as they were when Guehi was a formidable presence in central defence.