Match Result: Milan v Roma
Milan are hovering around the even money mark to win this Sunday night clash against Roma. The Rossoneri are therefore regarded as having a 50% chance of securing a victory against their title rivals. Before Tuesday night’s trip to Atalanta, they had won five of their eight Serie A matches and collected seventeen points from eight clashes.
In the five San Siro clashes played so far, three have been won, one has been drawn and one has been lost. The latter happened against Cremonese back in August but Gian Piero Gasperini’s side were then able to claim successes against Bologna, Lecce and Napoli. More recently, they were held to a 2-2 draw against Pisa.
Nevertheless, Milan are hard to beat this season. An eight-game winning run has been pretty solid, with the Rossoneri trading at a marginally bigger price than Inter and Napoli when it comes to winning the title. Games such as this one will have a strong bearing on whether they can last the distance.
As for Roma, perhaps they can be the dark horses for the title this term. It doesn’t appear that the side from the Italian capital are particularly struck about the Europa League. Their away wins this term have come at Pisa, Lazio, Fiorentina and Sassuolo. It’s notable that they don’t concede many chances on the road and running a tight ship is certainly part of the deal.
The team’s ability to keep a clean sheet is certainly putting them in the conversation, with only three goals conceded in the space of eight games. It therefore puts them in with a chance of landing a slender victory at the San Siro. At the prices, it might be that the draw offers the best value.
Goals Under/Over
It’s hardly a surprise that Under 2.5 Goals is trading at the shorter of the two prices. Roma’s four games have featured just six goals so far. They have managed to score five times on the road and there’s been the concession of a solitary goal. That mean defence will lead to punters going for a low goal tally here, with Milan having their work cut out to find a way past the defence.
Milan’s matches have been altogether different. The Rossoneri have scored thirteen times in the space of their eight games. They have also conceded six goals, all of which have come at home. The last two clashes between Milan and Roma have seen four goals being scored and perhaps that could lead to an argument for backing Over 3.5 Goals in this encounter.
BTTS
The previous four encounters featuring Roma and Milan have resulted in a BTTS Yes outcome. When the sides met at the Stadio Olimpico in May, the home side were able to claim a 3-1 victory although the scoreline was a direct result of an early red card for the Rossoneri. A previous Coppa Italia match saw Milan topple Roma by the same scoreline, with the teams previously playing out a 1-1 draw at the San Siro.
The biggest objection to going for BTTS Yes is that Roma have only conceded one goal in the space of four away games. The bookies do think that there’s little between the two potential outcomes, with BTTS Yes marginally shorter than BTTS No. Personally we feel as though the latter is a more attractive option considering both of these teams will have played a midweek encounter.
Three of the previous four Milan clashes have resulted in BTTS Yes, with the four previous encounters having ended up with BTTS No. We do think BTTS No is more in your favour at the prices and that covers off the possibility of a goalless draw taking place.
First Goalscorer
Christian Pulisic is in the form of his life this season, with the American having notched six goals for club and country this term. The 27-year-old recently enjoyed a run of three games on the scoresheet, with a brace coming against Udinese before getting on the scoresheet against Lecce and Napoli.
Rafael Leao has had his season affected by injury although the Portuguese has scored four times in the space of five games this term. The 26-year-old will be out to make a difference against Roma, who don’t have anyone proving too prolific right now. Paulo Dybala might be the best bet considering that the former recently bagged the opener away to Sassuolo.
Dybala is also on penalties and converted one against Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League, with Artem Dovbyk another forward bidding to get amongst the goals. He has only found the net once this term and the Ukrainian will be out to prove his worth in the hope that Roma can really challenge for a Scudetto.
However, if you bet on No Goalscorer for this game, then you get the benefit of a 1-0 scoreline if the only goal is an own goal. We do think that a low-scoring encounter is on the cards here.