Napoli v Milan Betting Markets
Napoli now look likely to go unbeaten at home this season in Serie A. They have played fourteen matches at the Diego Maradona Stadium, securing ten wins and four draws along the way. They haven't been power scorers at home considering just twenty-five goals have been pilfered and there have been thirteen goals conceded. However, Antonio Conte's team have regularly found a way to win clashes.
The question is whether they can beat Milan on Monday night. A victory would see them leapfrog the Rossoneri and keep Inter in focus with the games running out. Recent form has been strong considering that successive 2-1 victories have been enjoyed against Verona, Torino and Lecce. Then came a 1-0 win away to Cagliari where Conte's side denied their opponents any shot on target.
Even so, the Serie A betting odds imply that Napoli only have a 40% chance of achieving a maximum haul against Milan. They have been denied a victory on four occasions at home this term and will face a side who are used to avoiding a loss when they take to the road. Max Allegri's team have won nine, drawn five and lost just one of their away games.
The visitors might be the outsiders but are regarded by the bookies as the slightly stronger team. They run a tight ship away from the San Siro and it's no mean feat to have conceded on just ten occasions. This makes them the strongest defence on the road in the whole division, although that solitary loss did come recently.
Lazio inflicted a 1-0 defeat in a tight game where the home side scored from one of their two shots on target. Milan only managed to get 3 SOT and it was followed by a slightly wobbly performance against Torino. A 3-2 win was achieved despite being outshot and an improvement will be needed to win this fixture.
Goals Under/Over
There's plenty at stake when these teams clash and that explains why Under 2.5 Goals is trading at a relatively short price. Odds of 1.61 suggests that there's a greater than 60% chance of two or less goals being notched. Although Milan had that 3-2 win over Torino, this was an uncharacteristic result considering that the previous five encounters had featured two goals or less.
Three of these games ended in a 1-0 scoreline and the modus operandi of the team is to keep things tight and look to edge encounters on a consistent basis. We know that the defence is usually rock solid, with Antonio Conte also having a reputation for pragmatism and he knows that his team will have to run a tight defensive ship.
On the flip side, there were five consecutive Napoli games where there were Over 2.5 Goals before that 1-0 win in Cagliari.
BTTS
BTTS Yes has been a recent trend in Napoli games. After losing 3-0 away to Juventus towards the end of January, there were nine consecutive matches where both teams found the net. The previous four victories have seen BTTS Yes happen in three of the games although it's worth noting that the opposition have often found a way to score despite not having many chances.
Milan are more of a BTTS No team when it comes to their recent matches. Before that 3-2 win over Torino, there were four straight matches where this outcome happened. Fikayo Tomori has been a class defender for the Rossoneri and operates in front of France number one Mike Maignan who recently help Les Bleus beat Brazil with ten men.
The BTTS No odds are trading slightly shorter than BTTS Yes, although it was the latter that was the outcome when the sides clashed in September. Milan flew out of the traps to take a 2-0 lead in that game, with Napoli then laying siege to the opposition goal and having seven shots on goal. However, that was mainly down to a red card for Pervis Estupinan.
First Goalscorer
Rasmus Hojlund might not have made the grade at Manchester United, although the Dane has racked up a double figure tally for Napoli and might prove to be the match winner here. He scored against Verona in late February and was also on the scoresheet against Lecce, with the forward turning out for his country during the international break.
Scott McTominay is another former United man who has gone on to be a great success in Naples, with a crazy thirteen goals being scored by the Scot across all competitions. He scored twice away to Inter and seems to be the man for the big occasion. Matteo Politano was also able to score against Lecce and might have more in his locker here.
Rafael Leao has been a livewire for Milan this term, with the Portuguese having ten goals in all competitions and he recently scored in games against Como and Cremonese. At a bigger price, you might do worse than consider Strahinja Pavlovic considering that the Serbian defender has been able to notch a goal in two of his past five performances.