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How accurate are the Spain - Primera Division odds?

The closing prices of 1,971 finished games since Fri 13 Aug 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,971 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 55% 1,077 of 1,971 games
  • Market Brier score 0.568 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 94.6% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,971 Fri 13 Aug 2021 to Mon 12 Oct 2026

2 of the 1,973 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 5.9% of 170 selections 10-20% chance: happened 12.6% of 823 selections 20-30% chance: happened 24.1% of 2,015 selections 30-40% chance: happened 33.6% of 1,369 selections 40-50% chance: happened 48.7% of 671 selections 50-60% chance: happened 56.6% of 415 selections 60-70% chance: happened 72.7% of 256 selections 70-80% chance: happened 83.1% of 148 selections 80-90% chance: happened 87.8% of 41 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 170 7.5% 5.9% -1.6 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 823 15.7% 12.6% -3.1 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 2,015 26.0% 24.1% -1.9 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 1,369 33.8% 33.6% -0.2 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 671 44.6% 48.7% +4.1 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 415 54.8% 56.6% +1.8 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 256 65.2% 72.7% +7.5 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 148 74.7% 83.1% +8.4 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 41 83.8% 87.8% +4.0 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 44.2% 45.7% +1.5 pts
Draw 26.6% 26.2% -0.4 pts
Away win 29.2% 28.1% -1.1 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,971 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 1,655 0.562 -0.001 94.4%
Bet365 1,928 0.569 +0.002 94.7%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Spain Primera Division odds?
Across 1,971 finished Spain Primera Division games since 2021, the closing favourite won 55% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 44.2% on average and home wins happened 45.7% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.568 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.562. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.4% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Spain - Primera Division page, every game behind these figures in the Spain - Primera Division results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.