Match Result: Alaves v Real Madrid
Real Madrid have a 65% chance of recording a win at Campo de fútbol de Mendizorroza according to the latest odds. They have managed to win five of their nine away games this season, although there have been plenty of recent bumps in the road. Last weekend, Los Merengues were dealt a surprise 2-0 home defeat against Celta Vigo.
In the previous seven clashes across all competitions, there have been just two victories. A 1-0 defeat at Anfield in the Champions League came before dropping points when drawing against Rayo Vallecano and Elche. After a crazy 4-3 success away to Olympiakos, there was a 1-1 draw at Girona. A 3-0 success at Athletic Bilbao then came before that 2-0 reverse against Celta Vigo.
We should note that in the most recent La Liga encounter, Alvaro Carreras and Fran Garcia were given their marching orders. Endrick was also sent off from the bench and it will be a patched up side that takes to the field for this clash. Perhaps this is the time to consider the home side or even the draw.
The Babazorros were handed a three-game losing run recently but have since rallied by notching a couple of wins. There was a 3-0 Copa del Rey success away to Portugalete before a 1-0 win over Sociedad. There was plenty of defensive solidity and they allowed their opponents just one shot on target during the ninety minutes.
Alaves will be all about a low possession approach and looking to exploit their opponents on either the counter-attack or from set pieces. They have previously beaten Espanyol, Elche and Levante at home. The team held Atletico Madrid to a 1-1 draw and will be well organised.
Goals Under/Over
Virtually any game involving Real Madrid will mean that Over 2.5 Goals is trading at a shorter price than Under 1.5 Goals. Los Merengues have tremendous scoring power and there have been twenty-eight goals scored across nine away matches. This average of slightly more than three has been largely boosted by the goals of Kylian Mbappe, with Real having been on the road lots of times this term.
The visitors have endured six successive games on the road, with 50% of them resulting in three goals or more. However, there was also a 1-0 defeat at Anfield before a goalless draw at Rayo Vallecano. They played out a 1-1 draw at Girona and there's definitely an argument that Under 2.5 Goals is a better value bet here.
After all, Alaves will want to keep things tight and look to edge the encounter. Only seventeen goals have been scored across eight home matches and we're leaning towards that outcome.
BTTS
The bookies think BTTS Yes is marginally more likely than BTTS No but there's not too much in it. The former is favourite mainly because Real Madrid invariably score in a high percentage of their matches. Therefore, if that's a given in this encounter, it comes down to whether Alaves can also find the net.
In four of the previous five head-to-head encounters, we've seen BTTS No as the outcome and we certainly think this is the value bet. Alaves operate a low-possession brand of football which means any success on their part is likely to be by a single goal. Similarly, Real Madrid will want to focus on being strong defensively.
Last season's fixture saw Real Madrid claim a 1-0 success in an ill-tempered match. A first-half Eduardo Camavingo goal was enough to separate the two teams in an encounter where Kylian Mbappe was given a red card. Alaves actually managed to have six shots on target in this clash although they were helped by the game state.
However, in September 2024, there was a 3-2 victory in favour of Real Madrid where Los Merengues were racing into a three-goal lead before Alaves were able to score a couple of late goals.
First Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe has scored sixteen goals for Real Madrid this season in La Liga. The goal rate shows no sign of slowing down for the Frenchman who notched two goals away to Athletic Bilbao, bringing him to thirty for the season. There's only been one occasion where the forward has gone two games without a goal. Therefore, the fact that a blank was drawn against Celta Vigo means that he is likely to find the net here.
You might even opt to go for Mbappe to break the deadlock or alternatively go for the player to find the net in this Bet Builder. Jude Bellingham is probably the best alternative considering that the English midfielder has scored four times since 22 October, with Vinicius Junior possibly a good alternative to be on the scoresheet.
As for Alaves, Lucas Boye could be the boy considering that he's scored three goals for his club across the previous seven games. The Argentine is on penalty duties for the club and he was on the scoresheet when notching from the spot against Sociedad in early December. Toni Martinez has been able to score four times for the home side this season and his latest two came in a Copa del Rey game.