Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao Match Result
Real Madrid have a 60% chance of recording a victory in this La Liga clash. Some might be attracted to their price considering that Los Merengues are usual winners of their home games, having won twelve of fifteen clashes this term. On the flip side, they are facing a side who have been proving hard to beat domestically this term.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have hit the buffers recently. They had a 4-4 draw with Sociedad which required an extra-time winner and then came a shock home defeat against Valencia. The 3-0 defeat at the Emirates in the Champions League stunned Real and they come into this clash after throwing everything at the Gunners in the second leg of their quarter final tie.
The ship was recently steadied after a 1-0 win away to Alaves thanks to an Eduardo Camavinga first-half strike. However, shortly after that goal came a red card for Kylian Mbappe and that means that the team’s star striker will be suspended for his clash. It will certainly give hope to the visitors that a positive result can be landed.
Athletic Bilbao have won six, drawn six and lost three of their fifteen away games. They have run a tight ship defensively, with the side currently boasting a seven-match unbeaten run in all competitions. A recent 3-1 win over Rayo Vallecano illustrated their prowess and this game comes hard on the heels of a Europa League tie against Rangers which they are favourites to win.
It has been impressive how defensively stingy the team have been. Therefore a draw could be well worthy of consideration. Athletic have been able to claim as many of these as victories on the road and they were enjoying four consecutive clean sheets before the recent encounter.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies tentatively make Over 2.5 Goals the favourite out of the two possibilities. After all, there have been fifty-three goals scored in fifteen matches at the Bernabeu. Thirty-seven of these have been scored by Real Madrid and sixteen by their opponents. Therefore, the trends suggest that we’ll see the net bulge three times or more here.
However, on the flip side, Athletic Bilbao have been running a tight ship on the road. In their fifteen away games, there have been just thirty-four goals scored. Ernesto Valverde’s team would be happy with a low-scoring draw here and that could mean that backing Under 2.5 Goals is the value proposition.
This is especially when you consider that Kylian Mbappe will be watching the game from the stands after his red card. Before that 3-1 win for Athletic, there were four successive matches in all competitions where there were Under 2.5 Goals in all competitions.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes option is trading at slightly shorter odds than BTTS No. However, Athletic Bilbao know how to run a tight ship on the road. They recorded a goalless draw in the Europa League at Ibrox Stadium. This came after the same scoreline at Villarreal where they only mustered two shots on target, while the Yellow Submarine had four.
Previously to that, there was a 0-0 draw at home to Osasuna and that came after a 1-0 win at Sevilla. These results don’t suggest that they are likely to find the net at the Santiago Bernabeu. There’s also the fact that Kylian Mbappe won’t be on the pitch. The Frenchman is the main source of goals for Los Merengues and marginally reduces their chance of scoring.
It would perhaps be a surprise if Ancelotti’s side don’t find the net at least once here. After all, they have scored thirty-seven times in fifteen home clashes. They will surely create chances and be in a determined mood to try and win the game. A draw would effectively cede the La Liga title to Barcelona on the basis that they are already four points behind with an inferior goal difference.
First Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe is suspended for this clash and it might fall to Rodrygo to take on the goalscoring duties. The forward had a purple patch in December and January where he couldn’t stop finding the net, although the only goal since then came against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
Vinicius Junior was given a rest for a recent La Liga clash against Alaves and the Brazilian has twenty-one goals for the entire season in all competitions. He’s also something of a yellow card magnet considering that there have been sixteen bookings this term, with Jude Bellingham potentially roving forward in search of goals to help his team over the line here.
As for Athletic Bilbao, Oihan Sancet is having a profitable season right now. In recent matches, there have been eight in the previous seven and that means a sum total of sixteen being notched. There was a recent hat-trick against Girona and we also know that the Spaniard will be on penalty duties here. There’s always the outside chance that we’ll see No Goalscorer if the recent run of goalless draws for Athletic continues.