Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Betting Markets
Real Madrid have ten games to try and reel in Barcelona and become champions of Spain. It will be a tall order considering that they have a shortfall of four points right now. This is never an easy fixture when they're facing Atletico Madrid, with the visitors likely to be hugely motivated as they aim to defeat Los Merengues for the second time this term.
Real are trading at a shade of odds-on to land a victory. They have won twelve and lost two of their fourteen matches played at the Santiago Bernabeu. It might be that Kylian Mbappe is available to play after being on the sidelined for the past few games. The Frenchman's presence in the team greatly increases their chances of success here.
There have been a few bumps in the road domestically. A 2-1 defeat at Osasuna in February was followed by a 1-0 home reverse against Getafe. The ship has been steadied more recently with victories against Celta Vigo, Manchester City and Elche, the latter of which was a 4-1 success.
Even so, they might not find things easy against an Atletico side who have won their past four La Liga games. There was a 4-2 victory against Espanyol before a 1-0 success at Real Oviedo, with home successes coming more recently against Sociedad and Getafe. However, there was a 3-0 reverse away to Barcelona in the Copa del Rey.
One feels as though Real are a good bet to win this game, especially if Mbappe plays some part in the clash. They have immense scoring power and will want to get revenge for that 5-2 defeat at the end of September where Los Merengues led 2-1 before being overturned.
Goals Under/Over
Considering that the reverse fixture ended in a 5-2 scoreline, it's easy to see why Over 2.5 Goals is trading at a short price. The odds of 1.61 means that there's an implied probability of more than 60% when it comes to three or more goals being scored. We know that this Real Madrid are capable of covering the 2.5 goal line all by themselves.
Real's last two games are a case in hand. A Federico Valverde hat-trick helped them enjoy a 3-0 success against Manchester City and came before a 4-1 victory over Elche. At the time of writing, five of the past six matches involving Real Madrid have seen at least three goals. However, they will be up against an Atletico side who keep things tight on the road.
Diego Simeone's side adopt a more defensive strategy on the road and that means an average of just two goals per away game in which they're involved.
BTTS
It's not very often that you find Real Madrid drawing a blank. They have found the net thirty-three times across fourteen clashes at the Santiago Bernabeu. Aside from drawing a recent blank at home to Getafe, the last time Los Merengues failed to score in any competition was a 2-0 home reverse against Celta Vigo in early December.
Since that mishap against Getafe, Alvaro Arbeloa's side have gone on to average three goals per game and that's without their star striker. It will be interesting to see whether Atletico Madrid are able to nullify the opposition, with Diego Simeone's approach likely to be somewhat defensive for the derby.
On the road, the vast majority of Atleti games have been a BTTS No outcome. There was a 3-0 defeat at the Nou Camp in the Copa del Rey which came after a 1-0 success at Real Oviedo. Previously to this, there was a 3-0 defeat at Rayo Vallecano and there's been a shortage of goals on the road throughout the campaign.
We think a Real Madrid win along with BTTS No could be a decent shout, with Los Merengues simply needing to get the job done at this stage.
First Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe looks set to return to the starting line-up for this clash after playing a part against Manchester City in the Champions League. The Frenchman's numbers have been excellent this term, with the former PSG striker comfortably the top scorer in La Liga. He has twenty-three in this division and a sum total of forty-three in all competitions.
Mbappe scores goals in volumes and the Les Bleus forward has bagged braces against Monaco, Villarreal and Benfica. Should he be used sparingly after returning from injury, it could be Vinicius Junior who is able to find the net first. The Brazilian is in excellent scoring form right now and enjoyed a string of February games where he scored five matches on the bounce.
Then we have Federico Valverde who has that hat-trick to his name against Manchester City, with the Spaniard then finding the net against Elche and there's the prospect of Arda Guler also probing away in search of a goal.
Alexander Sorloth is the leading La Liga scorer for Atletico and he has eighteen for the campaign. Interestingly, he was left on the bench for that 5-2 win over Tottenham and perhaps Julian Alvarez rates as a better bet.