Match Result: Villarreal v Barcelona
It's not too often you get Barcelona at La Liga betting odds of 1.90 to win a match. Hansi Flick's side have been the most consistent team in Spain this season, with the Catalan outfit having won fourteen of their seventeen top-flight encounters. They have scored an impressive forty-nine goals already and conceded twenty.
This attacking approach of merely outscoring the opposition has yielded dividends. On the road, it's not always been straightforward and Flick's team have been denied a victory in three of their eight road trips. Barca were held to a 1-1 draw away to Rayo Vallecano at the end of August and they were also beaten soundly 4-1 by Sevilla.
Real Madrid won the first Clasico 2-1 and it's worth noting that Barcelona recently suffered a 3-0 Champions League loss at Stamford Bridge. However, it's been five straight wins in all competitions since that setback and that includes a 5-3 triumph at Real Betis which was an apt reflection of their power-scoring ways.
A trip to Estadio de la Cerámica is fraught with jeopardy for a Barca side who will face a Villarreal team who have been mustard at home. Not only have they registered seven wins and a draw from eight matches in front of their own fans. They have also scored twenty goals and conceded just four along the way.
The weirdest thing about Marcelino's side is how bad they have been in the Champions League this season. The Yellow Submarine haven't got to grips with the competition and have claimed just a solitary point from six matches played. However, Real Betis are the only team who has stopped them from winning at home in La Liga.
Goals Under/Over
The Over 2.5 Goals price is trading at very short odds. The 1.28 about three goals or more indicates that there's a 78% chance that this happens when Villarreal and Barcelona clash. The Over 3.5 Goals is also regarded as a likelihood at 1.72 and there might even be punters who plump for the Over 4.5 Goals odds at 2.62.
After all, Barcelona are non-negotiable with their attacking approach and there have been thirty-six goals scored across eight of their away games. So we're talking about an average of 4.5 which explains why the goal line is moving in that direction. However, Villarreal have only conceded four times at home all season. They have managed to score twenty goals across eight matches.
We think Over 3.5 Goals is the safest play and this can be combined with a Barcelona victory. Although Marcelino's men have fared well at home, their fixtures have been somewhat favourable which partly explains their excellent form.
BTTS
The La Liga football betting sites think that BTTS Yes is a very likely outcome. Odds of 1.33 imply a probability of around 75% that we will see the two teams find the net at least once. Villarreal average 2.5 goals per game in front of their own fans, with the Yellow Submarine adopting an attacking approach in a bid to rack up another home win.
As for Barcelona, they have scored twenty-one goals across eight away games and it's rare that Hansi Flick's side draw a blank in any match. Interestingly, their past five victories have seen BTTS Yes also happen along the way. Therefore, the obvious play is to back the visitors to win and couple this with the above outcome. That way, you can secure a more attractive price along the way.
Can we form an argument for BTTS No? Barcelona did recently overcome Osasuna 2-0 in La Liga where the opposition were restricted to 20% possession and two shots on target. However, Flick's men haven't kept an away clean sheet since winning at Mallorca on the first day of the season when achieving a 3-0 success.
First Goalscorer
Raphinha is getting back among the goals for Barcelona, with the Brazilian having struck late with two goals to down Osasuna. The player enjoyed a big return last term and could prove the difference in this game, with the former Leeds forward also notching recently against Atletico Madrid.
If Robert Lewandowski returns to the fold for the Catalan side, then we may see goals coming from the Polish forward. However, he's enjoyed a relatively modest eleven for the campaign thus far. There's no guarantee that he will be fit for this contest and it should be noted that Ferran Torres has a better return for the campaign.
The former Manchester City player bagged a first hat-trick of the season when notching three away to Real Betis and that brought his total to fifteen this term. Indeed, the Spanish international has now managed to pilfer nine times in the space of twelve fixtures and could be value on the anytime scorer market.
Alberto Moleiro could be Villarreal's most likely scorer and the 22-year-old has scored six times this season. This includes a brace away to Sociedad as part of a 3-2 win, with Ayoze Perez having started to find the net more regularly recently.