Greece v Germany Betting Markets
We're slightly surprised that Greece are available at such a big price to win Sunday's Nations League showdown against Germany. The odds on the home team are around the 4.10 mark which suggests that they only have a 25% chance of landing a victory. That's despite the fact that the team have been in strong form over the past few days.
They claimed a last-gasp success away to Serbia after coming from behind in Belgrade, with this being followed by a deserved 1-0 win in Augsburg. Ivan Jovanović's side then took a 2-0 lead against the Netherlands before being pegged back by the Dutch, although they've shown an ability to compete at a high level and could be value.
We should note that Jurgen Klopp has selected an enormous squad of players to cover the four scheduled Nations League games, with this fixture being the final one. The former Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund coach has seen his team come close to a victory in Amsterdam before a damp squib of a performance against Greece where the visitors landed a 1-0 win.
Klopp was finally able to celebrate a win at the third time of asking as the Germans overcame Serbia 2-0 at the Allianz Arena, with the team now heading to the Toumba Stadium in search of more lift-off. With an experimental line-up, it's curious that the visitors are trading as the 1.85 favourites which implies they have a greater than 50% chance of winning.
We would have this probability as much lower considering the previous fixture. The draw is clearly worthy of consideration, with Greece unbeaten in three games played so far and we can see them putting up some stubborn resistance in Thessaloniki.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is regarded as slightly more likely than Under 2.5 Goals. The former price is 1.70 and there have been at least three goals in two of Greece's three Nations League clashes. The 2-2 draw in Amsterdam saw the visitors two goals to the good before half-time before they were pegged back in the second half. Perhaps we'll see another open game this time around.
However, it's worth bearing in mind that Under 2.5 Goals has been the outcome in all here of Germany's games under Jurgen Klopp so far. Although the manager has a reputation for playing heavy metal football, there haven't been too many fireworks yet. Perhaps the two goals scored against Serbia could be a sign of things to come.
We'd tread carefully with a goals bet in what is essentially a glorified friendly and it's a game where a low-scoring draw would suit the needs of Greece.
BTTS
Both Teams to Score is always a popular market and perhaps we'll see both sides find the net in this Nations League encounter. Greece have scored five goals across their three matches, with the team having had five different scorers. They will be intent on playing attacking football in front of their own supporters and it would surprise them if a blank was drawn.
Germany have found the net in two of their three games. They looked to be sharp in front of goal when dominating against Serbia and scoring two. Jurgen Klopp will be targeting a victory here and will have learned plenty from his team's inability to score against the Greeks in Augsburg.
However, that 1-0 win in favour of Greece means that some will feel that BTTS No is a far better option. There could be a disjointed performance from a Germany side showing plenty of changes, with Greece having the blueprint of keeping a clean sheet against the same opposition. This is a market which we'd steer clear of until the team news has been confirmed.
First Goalscorer
Fotis Ioannidis was on target against the Netherlands when scoring the opening goal and that was his seventh goal across twenty-four international appearances for Greece. The Sporting CP attacker has had modest opportunities for Sporting CP since a switch from Panathinaikos but he's an effective performer for his country.
Georgios Masouras was also on the scoresheet in the game against the Dutch, with the 32-year-old scoring his twelfth goal in the space of sixty-two international appearances. The Neom forward could be considered to score here, although Christos Tzolis may play no part after sustaining an injury. Arsenal will want him to come back and recover.
Many Liverpool fans are yet to see the best of Florian Wirtz, although the attacking midfielder was on the scoresheet against Serbia. It might be that he's a good bet to break the deadlock here, with Klopp struggling to get the right combination of forward players in order to score goals.
Jonathan Burkardt is yet to find the net for his country and perhaps this is the game where the Eintracht Frankfurt man breaks his duck in a Germany shirt. Nick Woltemade has been more effective thanks to four goals across thirteen international appearances, although the other strikers in the squad are inexperienced.