Spain started the 2026 World Cup as favourites on the outright market although they were leapfrogged by France along the way. However, La Roja were convincing winners against their European counterparts in the semi-final and they go into the last match of the tournament as warm favourites. Some will think that their price is an attractive one.
Argentina have trailed a couple of teams during the knockout stage although La Albiceleste have found a way to navigate their way through to another final. Their never-say-die attitude means that Lionel Scaloni's team can't be easily discounted, especially with Lionel Messi pulling the strings. It's all set to be a captivating clash.
Spain v Argentina Betting Markets
Spain are 2.25 to win the 2026 World Cup final in normal time. That suggests that Luis de la Fuente's side have a 44% chance of recording a victory. Some will feel as though the European champions rate as a good bet at those prices. After all, they were the outsiders when facing France in the semis before outplaying their dangerous opponents to record a 2-0 victory.
De la Fuente will feel confident that his team can reproduce the same high level of performance. That might be enough to overcome an Argentina side who only really came to life against England in their semi-final when trailing by a goal. Lionel Scaloni's team are 3.60 to claim a normal time win which means a roughly 27% chance of getting the win.
The draw is a 3.00 chance which equates to a 33% probability that the game ends all square. The aim of Argentina will be to break up the opposition play and try to make sure they remain in the game. The key will be trying to get Lionel Messi on the ball, with the Inter Miami star likely to drift out to the right-hand side and find pockets of space.
After being held to a goalless draw by Cape Verde in their group opener, it's been straightforward for Spain in terms of victories. La Roja were ran relatively close by Belgium at the quarter final stage although they were always in control of the match before eventually finding a breakthrough. The same can be said of their clash against Portugal.
We do think Spain are the likely winners although Argentina are difficult to bet against. This side are awkward opposition and came back from the death to overturn an Egypt side who took a two-goal lead against the 2022 winners before finding a way back into the game to eventually secure the spoils.
Goals Under/Over
The Under 2.5 Goals odds are currently trading at 1.66. It's hardly a surprise to find this price considering that the final may be a tight affair. Spain are watertight in defence and that Belgium equaliser in the quarter final remains the only time that La Roja have conceded in this tournament. They have Fabian Ruiz and Pedri protecting a stubborn defence, with Argentina knowing that they have to put up a tough rearguard action of their own.
The South American side have been involved in several high-scoring clashes and the semi-final against England resulted in three goals, even if it looked as though there would be no more than two before Lautaro Martinez struck late. They did play out a 1-1 draw against Switzerland and found a way through in extra-time. The same thing happened against Cape Verde too.
BTTS
There's nothing to split the BTTS Yes and BTTS No betting odds. You can make a case for both. Since being held to a goalless draw against Cape Verde in their opening Group H clash, Luis de la Fuente's side have found a way to score. The only time that it looked as though they'd be denied a normal time strike was against Portugal before Mikel Merino struck at the death.
Spain are not a team full of goals but they know how to find the net. They may be nullified by Argentina to a degree, although La Albiceleste have managed to score in all seven of the matches in which they've competed. The incomparable Lionel Messi has proved adept as a scorer and an assistor of chances, with Julian Alvarez likely to be deployed in the out and out attacking role.
We are however leaning towards BTTS No in this market. The fact that Spain have kept six clean sheets is a remarkable record. They haven't been up against dross either. There was a mighty France side with a dangerous attack which created barely anything against them in the semi-final. Realistically, Argentina aren't as strong in the final third, even with Messi.
First Goalscorer
Mikel Oyarzabal is the man on penalty duties for Spain. The Real Sociedad forward has not let his country down one iota and remains the likeliest player to score for the European champions. He will remain in a central attacking role and is the target man when La Roja come forward, especially with the full-backs bombing forward and putting in crosses.
On that note, Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro are both capable of finding the net at a big price. Argentina will be preoccupied with stopping Lamine Yamal and that could lead to the defenders getting into advanced positions. Porro has scored twice already during this tournament and could well get his name on the scoresheet.
Dani Olmo is another one to consider, while Argentina have a number of potential scorers themselves. However, Lionel Messi is the main man and he will be looking to cap an unbelievable career by landing a second consecutive World Cup.
The former Barcelona man has been prolific in this tournament, with Alvarez a slightly bigger-priced alternative. It was also noticeable how deadly Enzo Fernandez was from range against England and there could be some merit in siding with the Chelsea man.
