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How accurate are the World Cup Qualifying odds?

The closing prices of 384 finished games since Wed 1 Sep 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

384 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 70% 270 of 384 games
  • Market Brier score 0.393 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 94.5% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 384 Wed 1 Sep 2021 to Tue 31 Mar 2026

3 of the 387 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 1.6% of 251 selections 10-20% chance: happened 12.4% of 234 selections 20-30% chance: happened 28.6% of 206 selections 30-40% chance: happened 29.1% of 103 selections 40-50% chance: happened 45.8% of 59 selections 50-60% chance: happened 50.0% of 56 selections 60-70% chance: happened 71.2% of 59 selections 70-80% chance: happened 80.9% of 68 selections 80-90% chance: happened 91.9% of 74 selections 90-100% chance: happened 100.0% of 42 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 251 5.5% 1.6% -3.9 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 234 14.9% 12.4% -2.5 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 206 25.2% 28.6% +3.4 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 103 33.2% 29.1% -4.1 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 59 44.5% 45.8% +1.3 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 56 56.1% 50.0% -6.1 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 59 65.4% 71.2% +5.8 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 68 74.7% 80.9% +6.2 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 74 85.1% 91.9% +6.8 pts
90-100% 1.11 or shorter 42 93.0% 100.0% +7.0 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 45.7% 45.3% -0.4 pts
Draw 19.4% 19.0% -0.4 pts
Away win 34.9% 35.7% +0.8 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 384 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 375 0.389 +0.001 94.6%
Bet365 363 0.391 0.000 94.3%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are World Cup Qualifying odds?
Across 384 finished World Cup Qualifying games since 2021, the closing favourite won 70% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 45.7% on average and home wins happened 45.3% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.393 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.389. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.5% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the World Cup Qualifying page, every game behind these figures in the World Cup Qualifying results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.