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How accurate are the European Championship odds?

The closing prices of 181 finished games since Wed 12 Oct 2022, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

181 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 79% 143 of 181 games
  • Market Brier score 0.302 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 92.4% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 181 Wed 12 Oct 2022 to Sun 11 May 2025

28 of the 209 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 3.7% of 188 selections 10-20% chance: happened 8.3% of 96 selections 20-30% chance: happened 20.9% of 43 selections 60-70% chance: happened 69.4% of 36 selections 80-90% chance: happened 94.8% of 58 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 188 6.5% 3.7% -2.8 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 96 12.3% 8.3% -4.0 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 43 25.2% 20.9% -4.3 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 36 64.7% 69.4% +4.7 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 58 85.9% 94.8% +8.9 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 52.1% 55.8% +3.7 pts
Draw 7.9% 6.1% -1.8 pts
Away win 40.0% 38.1% -1.9 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 181 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Bet365 110 0.231 +0.005 92.6%
Unibet 173 0.304 0.000 92.4%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are European Championship odds?
Across 181 finished European Championship games since 2022, the closing favourite won 79% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 52.1% on average and home wins happened 55.8% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.302 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Bet365 at 0.231. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 7.6% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the European Championship page, every game behind these figures in the European Championship results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.