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How accurate are the Germany - DEL odds?

The closing prices of 1,775 finished games since Sun 30 Jan 2022, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,775 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 56% 987 of 1,775 games
  • Market Brier score 0.567 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 92.7% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,775 Sun 30 Jan 2022 to Thu 15 Oct 2026

113 of the 1,888 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 2.2% of 139 selections 10-20% chance: happened 15.5% of 606 selections 20-30% chance: happened 21.4% of 2,043 selections 30-40% chance: happened 34.4% of 900 selections 40-50% chance: happened 47.0% of 779 selections 50-60% chance: happened 57.8% of 493 selections 60-70% chance: happened 70.1% of 214 selections 70-80% chance: happened 83.1% of 83 selections 80-90% chance: happened 85.2% of 54 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 139 5.2% 2.2% -3.0 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 606 17.0% 15.5% -1.5 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 2,043 23.4% 21.4% -2.0 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 900 35.0% 34.4% -0.6 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 779 44.8% 47.0% +2.2 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 493 54.2% 57.8% +3.6 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 214 63.8% 70.1% +6.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 83 73.7% 83.1% +9.4 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 54 84.8% 85.2% +0.4 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 44.7% 46.1% +1.4 pts
Draw 21.6% 20.2% -1.4 pts
Away win 33.7% 33.7% 0.0 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,775 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 1,648 0.566 0.000 92.0%
Bet365 1,280 0.603 +0.004 93.8%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Germany DEL odds?
Across 1,775 finished Germany DEL games since 2022, the closing favourite won 56% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 44.7% on average and home wins happened 46.1% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.567 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.566. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 7.3% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Germany - DEL page, every game behind these figures in the Germany - DEL results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.