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How accurate are the England - Premiership odds?

The closing prices of 499 finished games since Fri 17 Sep 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

499 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 72% 358 of 499 games
  • Market Brier score 0.380 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 92.3% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 499 Fri 17 Sep 2021 to Sun 11 Oct 2026

20 of the 519 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 2.1% of 529 selections 10-20% chance: happened 12.5% of 96 selections 20-30% chance: happened 19.3% of 140 selections 30-40% chance: happened 35.8% of 137 selections 40-50% chance: happened 44.4% of 124 selections 50-60% chance: happened 53.5% of 127 selections 60-70% chance: happened 70.2% of 131 selections 70-80% chance: happened 83.1% of 118 selections 80-90% chance: happened 89.9% of 79 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 529 3.8% 2.1% -1.7 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 96 15.6% 12.5% -3.1 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 140 24.9% 19.3% -5.6 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 137 35.0% 35.8% +0.8 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 124 45.0% 44.4% -0.6 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 127 55.4% 53.5% -1.9 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 131 64.9% 70.2% +5.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 118 74.9% 83.1% +8.2 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 79 84.5% 89.9% +5.4 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 59.9% 64.5% +4.6 pts
Draw 3.6% 2.2% -1.4 pts
Away win 36.5% 33.3% -3.2 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 499 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 452 0.372 -0.001 92.6%
Bet365 399 0.382 +0.005 92.1%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are England Premiership odds?
Across 499 finished England Premiership games since 2021, the closing favourite won 72% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 59.9% on average and home wins happened 64.5% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.380 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.372. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 7.7% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the England - Premiership page, every game behind these figures in the England - Premiership results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.