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How accurate are the WTA Australia Open odds?

The closing prices of 759 finished games since Sun 9 Jan 2022, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

759 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 69% 526 of 759 games
  • Market Brier score 0.377 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 94.3% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 759 Sun 9 Jan 2022 to Sat 25 Jan 2025

16 of the 775 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 1.9% of 54 selections 10-20% chance: happened 14.4% of 146 selections 20-30% chance: happened 23.5% of 179 selections 30-40% chance: happened 38.3% of 183 selections 40-50% chance: happened 50.3% of 193 selections 50-60% chance: happened 49.8% of 201 selections 60-70% chance: happened 61.7% of 183 selections 70-80% chance: happened 76.5% of 179 selections 80-90% chance: happened 85.6% of 146 selections 90-100% chance: happened 98.1% of 54 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 54 7.7% 1.9% -5.8 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 146 15.3% 14.4% -0.9 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 179 25.3% 23.5% -1.8 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 183 35.3% 38.3% +3.0 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 193 44.9% 50.3% +5.4 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 201 54.9% 49.8% -5.1 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 183 64.7% 61.7% -3.0 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 179 74.7% 76.5% +1.8 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 146 84.7% 85.6% +0.9 pts
90-100% 1.11 or shorter 54 92.3% 98.1% +5.8 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 51.3% 50.6% -0.7 pts
Away win 48.7% 49.4% +0.7 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 759 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 654 0.364 -0.002 94.1%
Bet365 529 0.387 +0.007 94.8%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are WTA Australia Open odds?
Across 759 finished WTA Australia Open games since 2022, the closing favourite won 69% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 51.3% on average and home wins happened 50.6% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.377 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.364. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.7% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the WTA Australia Open page, every game behind these figures in the WTA Australia Open results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.