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How accurate are the USA - NCAA odds?

The closing prices of 1,872 finished games since Sat 31 Jan 2026, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,872 games, 1 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 68% 1,264 of 1,872 games
  • Market Brier score 0.398 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 94.8% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,872 Sat 31 Jan 2026 to Sun 15 Mar 2026

128 of the 2,000 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 2.8% of 71 selections 10-20% chance: happened 13.5% of 297 selections 20-30% chance: happened 24.3% of 399 selections 30-40% chance: happened 34.6% of 468 selections 40-50% chance: happened 48.2% of 623 selections 50-60% chance: happened 51.8% of 651 selections 60-70% chance: happened 65.3% of 458 selections 70-80% chance: happened 75.6% of 409 selections 80-90% chance: happened 86.5% of 297 selections 90-100% chance: happened 97.2% of 71 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 71 7.8% 2.8% -5.0 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 297 15.6% 13.5% -2.1 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 399 25.3% 24.3% -1.0 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 468 34.9% 34.6% -0.3 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 623 45.4% 48.2% +2.8 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 651 54.4% 51.8% -2.6 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 458 65.0% 65.3% +0.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 409 74.6% 75.6% +1.0 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 297 84.4% 86.5% +2.1 pts
90-100% 1.11 or shorter 71 92.2% 97.2% +5.0 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 58.6% 59.3% +0.7 pts
Away win 41.4% 40.7% -0.7 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,872 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 1,872 0.398 0.000 94.8%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are USA NCAA odds?
Across 1,872 finished USA NCAA games since 2026, the closing favourite won 68% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 58.6% on average and home wins happened 59.3% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.398 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.398. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.2% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the USA - NCAA page, every game behind these figures in the USA - NCAA results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.