Skip to main content

How accurate are the UK Open odds?

The closing prices of 501 finished games since Fri 3 Mar 2023, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

501 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 68% 341 of 501 games
  • Market Brier score 0.404 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 94.6% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 501 Fri 3 Mar 2023 to Sun 8 Mar 2026

24 of the 525 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

10-20% chance: happened 6.7% of 45 selections 20-30% chance: happened 12.7% of 71 selections 30-40% chance: happened 37.1% of 159 selections 40-50% chance: happened 39.6% of 207 selections 50-60% chance: happened 59.2% of 233 selections 60-70% chance: happened 62.9% of 159 selections 70-80% chance: happened 87.3% of 71 selections 80-90% chance: happened 93.3% of 45 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 45 16.2% 6.7% -9.5 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 71 25.5% 12.7% -12.8 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 159 35.6% 37.1% +1.5 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 207 44.8% 39.6% -5.2 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 233 54.6% 59.2% +4.6 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 159 64.4% 62.9% -1.5 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 71 74.5% 87.3% +12.8 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 45 83.8% 93.3% +9.5 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 49.0% 47.3% -1.7 pts
Away win 51.0% 52.7% +1.7 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 501 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 303 0.383 -0.003 94.0%
Bet365 406 0.429 +0.005 95.0%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are UK Open odds?
Across 501 finished UK Open games since 2023, the closing favourite won 68% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 49.0% on average and home wins happened 47.3% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.404 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.383. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.4% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the UK Open page, every game behind these figures in the UK Open results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.