Westerlo clash with Union Saint Gilloise on Saturday night, with Issame Charaï's side operating as the big outsiders to claim a victory in the opening weekend of the Belgian Pro League. They have a tough assignment against opposition who finished top of the regular standings last season before eventually finishing as runners-up in the post-season.
David Hubert will be confident that his team can go one better than last season and they were hard to beat for much of the previous campaign. Having won nineteen of their thirty games in the regular season, they then won a further six matches and could end up being a popular accumulator selection for this clash.
Westerlo v Union Saint Gilloise Betting Markets
Union Saint Gilloise are bidding to win the Belgian Pro League this season and they finished runners-up last term. This time around, the football betting sites make them second favourites behind Club Brugge, with David Hubert's side heading to Het Kuipje for their first assignment of the campaign. Odds of 1.66 highlight that USG are regarded as having a 60% chance of landing a victory.
A word of caution is that the title contenders were far stronger at home than away last term. Les Unionistes were able to win eighteen of their twenty clashes on home soil, although they were a lot less effective on the road. Overall, just seven of their twenty matches on the road ended in a victory, with the number of goals scored in far shorter supply.
Hubert will be keen to address the away form this time around, especially as it ultimately proved the difference last term. However, this is not an easy opening fixture and Westerlo finished ninth in the regular Belgian Pro League standings last term before a fourth-placed finish in the Europa League play-offs.
Interestingly, Westerlo landed more points on the road than at home last season, with the bookies giving them a roughly 25% chance of securing a precious three points to kick off the campaign in style. They did avoid defeat in eleven of twenty encounters and perhaps the draw offers more value than the away win. It would be a welcome result for the home side who are likely to put plenty of players behind the ball.
Indeed, when the teams last played on 1 March, the sides played out a goalless draw and it should be noted that Westerlo landed a surprise 4-3 victory in the previous campaign, so they'll be confident of getting the right result here.
Goals Under/Over
There's not a great deal between the Overs or Unders which suggests that the Belgian Pro League betting sites have the 2.5 line about right. The case for Over 2.5 Goals is hard to make based on last season's clashes between Union Saint Gilloise and Westerlo. There was a goalless draw at Het Kuipje in early March where the visitors struggled to fashion scoring chances and this ultimately cost them the title.
When the teams previously met in late September, Union were 2-0 winners and the breakthrough only came after the hour mark. Before that, it had been hard work breaching the defensive ranks. USG warmed up for this clash with a 1-1 draw against Club Brugge in the Super Cup and they'll hope to take that performance into this encounter.
We're leaning towards the Unders despite that 4-3 win for Westerlo two years ago. They may struggle to create four chances, let alone score anywhere near that many goals after drawing blanks twice.
BTTS
The bookies make BTTS Yes slightly more likely than BTTS No. However, we're of the opinion that the latter is better value. For starters, Westerlo weren't able to score in either of their matches against Union Saint Gilloise. Indeed, the only time that the net bulged across 180 minutes of football between the pair were two goals after the hour mark in the reverse fixture.
Union only managed to score twenty-three goals across their twenty road trips last term and they conceded on just twenty occasions. That was in stark contrast to the home form where forty-three goals were scored and just seven were conceded.
Westerlo scored twenty-six times in front of their own fans this term, with twenty-seven goals conceded. It may be that they're able to take advantage of tired legs within the visitors' ranks and this match will come hard on the heels of a Champions League qualifier against Bodo/Glimt which could be to the advantage of the underdogs.
However, this will be an opener where USG might deploy pragmatic tactics and a win for them along with BTTS No could be the bet that is worth having.
First Goalscorer
Promise David was the top scorer for Union Saint Gilloise last season, with the forward then representing Canada in the World Cup and actually scoring a spectacular effort against Switzerland during the group stage. The slight concern is that his club scoring exploits ended after finding the net against Mechelen in January, with the player proving to be typically streaky.
Perhaps we'll see more from Anan Khalaili who is a 21-year-old with a potentially bright future. The Israeli found the net right at the end of the season against Anderlecht and looked bright in some games including a brace being scored in a Champions League encounter against Marseille.
At a bigger price, former Burnley defender Ross Sykes has a knack of finding the net from deep-lying positions and he managed to rack up six goals last term. Between the end of February and the end of the season, four goals were totted up and the player is also a yellow card magnet.
Isa Sakamoto is a 22-year-old who scored in consecutive games for Westerlo last term, with the Japanese player finding the net against Royal Antwerp and O-H Leuven. Perhaps he can hit the ground running here.
