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How accurate are the Denmark - Superligaen odds?

The closing prices of 1,021 finished games since Fri 16 Jul 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,021 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 50% 515 of 1,021 games
  • Market Brier score 0.604 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 94.1% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,021 Fri 16 Jul 2021 to Mon 12 Oct 2026

Market chance against what happened

10-20% chance: happened 16.4% of 317 selections 20-30% chance: happened 25.2% of 1,363 selections 30-40% chance: happened 33.8% of 518 selections 40-50% chance: happened 46.3% of 408 selections 50-60% chance: happened 54.6% of 271 selections 60-70% chance: happened 67.5% of 117 selections 70-80% chance: happened 72.1% of 43 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 317 16.3% 16.4% +0.1 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 1,363 25.6% 25.2% -0.4 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 518 34.7% 33.8% -0.9 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 408 44.4% 46.3% +1.9 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 271 54.6% 54.6% 0.0 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 117 64.4% 67.5% +3.1 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 43 73.3% 72.1% -1.2 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 42.4% 41.3% -1.1 pts
Draw 25.2% 27.3% +2.1 pts
Away win 32.4% 31.3% -1.1 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,021 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 867 0.603 -0.001 94.2%
Bet365 999 0.606 +0.003 94.1%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Denmark Superligaen odds?
Across 1,021 finished Denmark Superligaen games since 2021, the closing favourite won 50% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 42.4% on average and home wins happened 41.3% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.604 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.603. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.9% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Denmark - Superligaen page, every game behind these figures in the Denmark - Superligaen results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.