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How accurate are the England - EFL Cup odds?

The closing prices of 539 finished games since Sat 31 Jul 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

539 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 57% 305 of 539 games
  • Market Brier score 0.538 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 93.8% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 539 Sat 31 Jul 2021 to Thu 17 Sep 2026

1 of the 540 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 0.0% of 76 selections 10-20% chance: happened 14.2% of 295 selections 20-30% chance: happened 26.0% of 589 selections 30-40% chance: happened 31.5% of 184 selections 40-50% chance: happened 42.8% of 159 selections 50-60% chance: happened 57.4% of 122 selections 60-70% chance: happened 64.8% of 91 selections 70-80% chance: happened 88.7% of 71 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 76 7.2% 0.0% -7.2 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 295 15.4% 14.2% -1.2 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 589 25.5% 26.0% +0.5 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 184 34.4% 31.5% -2.9 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 159 44.7% 42.8% -1.9 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 122 55.0% 57.4% +2.4 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 91 64.4% 64.8% +0.4 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 71 74.2% 88.7% +14.5 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 43.2% 40.1% -3.1 pts
Draw 23.4% 22.8% -0.6 pts
Away win 33.4% 37.1% +3.7 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 539 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 506 0.535 0.000 93.2%
Bet365 528 0.538 +0.002 94.3%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are England EFL Cup odds?
Across 539 finished England EFL Cup games since 2021, the closing favourite won 57% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 43.2% on average and home wins happened 40.1% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.538 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.535. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 6.2% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the England - EFL Cup page, every game behind these figures in the England - EFL Cup results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.