Match Result: Lyon v Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain have clocked up twenty-four points from eleven Ligue 1 games played. Everything was going smoothly until a 1-0 defeat at Marseille. Since then, there have been more dropped points against Lille, Strasbourg and Lorient. It should be understood that the French and European champions have had their fair share of injury problems. They are still top of the standings and overwhelming favourites to win the title.
This is one of the toughest fixtures of the domestic season for PSG. They are odds-on favourites to win at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, with odds of 1.72 suggesting that there’s a roughly 60% chance that they will land three points. They claimed a 1-0 success at Nantes and that came before a crazy 6-3 victory away to Toulouse. There was a 3-0 triumph away to Brest too.
It should also be noted that PSG have enjoyed some spectacular wins on the road in the Champions League. Such as a 2-1 win at Newcastle before putting seven past Bayer Leverkusen. They’re a power-scoring side and there’s Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia available for selection who can help them to another win.
However, Lyon are strong at home and will be confident of getting a positive outcome. They run a tight ship at home, having won four out of five encounters in front of their own fans. They have scored eight goals and only conceded three. Even if a victory might not be attained, we certainly think that the draw is a potential runner and that offers more appeal than the away win.
Lyon have only lost three games in the space of fourteen games in all competitions. You could consider taking the home side on the Asian Handicap and it might be a close-run encounter, with home advantage having served up Paulo Fonseca’s side well.
Goals Under/Over
When Paris Saint-Germain are in action, you can always expect to find goals on the cards. Therefore, it comes as little surprise to find that Over 2.5 is trading at 1.53. This means that there’s a 65% chance that we will see three goals or more being scored. We’ve seen eighteen goals registered across six matches on the road for Enrique’s team, not to mention those high-scoring European adventures.
Lyon have notched eight goals in the space of five home games. They run a fairly tight ship considering that just three have been conceded. The last time that they were in Ligue 1 action involved a goalless draw away to Brest. Previously to this was a 3-3 draw at Paris. Given the European exertions of both teams, we think that Under 3.5 Goals could be the best shout. This still allows for three goals to be scored in order to get a return.
BTTS
When Lyon play Paris Saint-Germain, we generally find that both teams are able to score. The last encounter took place in February. It was a high-octane encounter, with PSG landing a 3-2 success. Interestingly, all five goals were scored in the final forty minutes of the match. However, there were a sum total of fifteen shots on target during the encounter and that explains why BTTS Yes is trading at such a short price.
Previously in December, PSG claimed a 3-1 win at the Parc des Princes. The teams met each other three times the previous season and they all ended in a BTTS Yes outcome too. That means it’s been five straight meetings where this outcome has happened. However, the majority of Lyon home games this season have featured BTTS No instead.
As for Paris Saint-Germain, there were four consecutive games which featured BTTS Yes before a 3-0 triumph away to Brest. On that occasion, the opposition were limited to two shots on target. Following on from this, the 1-1 draw away to Lorient involved the opponents only having two SOT and there was more defensive solidity when shutting out Nice by scoring a single goal.
First Goalscorer
No Paris Saint-Germain player has hit the ground running in terms of Ligue 1 goals. Bradley Barcola has five for the season although the 23-year-old has hardly been prolific. In the past few games, the forward has struggled to find the net and he only has one in the previous nine encounters.
Achraf Hakimi could be worthy of consideration. The Moroccan has taken some time to find the scoresheet, although he was on target with a brace at Brest. Desire Doue could also be worth considering. The forward has had a few injury problems this term, although he notched twice away to Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League before a goal at Brest.
Ousmane Dembele was the Ballon d’Or winner for 2025 and the French striker could be about to hit his stride, with the player another who has had a stop-start season. He was able to score against Toulouse when bagging a brace before another goal in Germany.
Pavel Sulc could be the fly in the ointment for PSG. The Czech as able to score twice away to Nice and he was also able to score two goals away to Paris. Young Belgian Malick Fofana will be looking to make an impression and might earn a start, having now become part of the international squad.