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How accurate are the Spain - La Liga odds?

The closing prices of 1,998 finished games since Sat 14 Aug 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,998 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 55% 1,094 of 1,998 games
  • Market Brier score 0.567 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 94.6% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,998 Sat 14 Aug 2021 to Sun 1 Nov 2026

2 of the 2,000 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 5.7% of 176 selections 10-20% chance: happened 12.6% of 840 selections 20-30% chance: happened 24.1% of 2,041 selections 30-40% chance: happened 33.5% of 1,375 selections 40-50% chance: happened 48.8% of 680 selections 50-60% chance: happened 56.7% of 420 selections 60-70% chance: happened 72.2% of 263 selections 70-80% chance: happened 83.6% of 152 selections 80-90% chance: happened 88.1% of 42 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 176 7.5% 5.7% -1.8 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 840 15.7% 12.6% -3.1 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 2,041 26.0% 24.1% -1.9 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 1,375 33.8% 33.5% -0.3 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 680 44.6% 48.8% +4.2 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 420 54.8% 56.7% +1.9 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 263 65.2% 72.2% +7.0 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 152 74.7% 83.6% +8.9 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 42 83.9% 88.1% +4.2 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 44.2% 45.7% +1.5 pts
Draw 26.5% 26.0% -0.5 pts
Away win 29.2% 28.2% -1.0 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,998 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 1,682 0.561 -0.001 94.4%
Bet365 1,955 0.569 +0.003 94.7%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Spain La Liga odds?
Across 1,998 finished Spain La Liga games since 2021, the closing favourite won 55% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 44.2% on average and home wins happened 45.7% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.567 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.561. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.4% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Spain - La Liga page, every game behind these figures in the Spain - La Liga results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.