One of the highlight fixtures of the La Liga season is the showdown between Atletico and Real Madrid. The first of their match-ups comes on 20 September just before the international break. A packed Estadio Riyadh Air Metropolitano plays host to an encounter where Atleti will be desperate to lower the colours of their city rivals.
Diego Simeone will hope that home advantage can make a difference, with Jose Mourinho entering the lion's den in the hope that his side can secure three points. The bookies think that a victory is likely for the visitors although a 1-0 defeat away to Real Betis proves that they can be exposed by a strong performance.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Betting Markets
On Sunday 20 September, the two Madrid giants lock horn at the Estadio Riyadh Air Metropolitano and Atletico look a backable price to win. Diego Simeone remains in charge of a team who will have played Osasuna a few days previously, with the team looking to draw on home comforts after four successive games on the road.
The early results have been something of a mixed bag. There was a 2-0 victory against Malaga before a 2-2 draw against Villarreal. Then came a 3-1 success at Sevilla before successive defeats away to Athletic Bilbao and Liverpool. The former defeat was particularly galling considering the 3-0 scoreline although a return to form came when winning 3-0 at Sociedad.
Atleti are trading at odds of 3.70 which we think look too big. The implied probability of success is 27% and perhaps it should be a bit higher. This is not a team who lose too many times at home and they claimed an impressive fifteen victories across their nineteen games in front of their own fans. This is certainly a difficult assignment though.
Real Madrid won eleven of their nineteen away clashes last term and they have began the season with five victories and a defeat. Jose Mourinho is enjoying a second stint at the Santiago Bernabeu and has recently overseen wins against Inter Milan and Rayo Vallecano. However, that success was preceded by a 1-0 defeat away to Real Betis.
Indeed, Los Merengues have only taken to the road on two occasions so far this term. They will have travelled to Elche before this second road trip in a week, with their odds of 1.80 perhaps being a little on the short side. We're not sure that the team really have a 55% chance of success in such a high-stakes game.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is operating at odds of around 1.50. Do we think that there's a 66% chance of three or more being netted? Five of Real Madrid's six games so far have resulted in the Overs although four of these clashes have been played at the Santiago Bernabeu. The 1-0 defeat away at Real Betis could be more telling and Jose Mourinho knows how to engineer a low-scoring result.
Nevertheless, the recent 4-1 win over Rayo Vallecano saw Los Merengues have eleven shots on target and concede seven. They may well take an attack-minded approach against an Atleti side whose past five clashes have gone Over 2.5. Perhaps this is slightly distorted considering that the scoreline was goalless for their away game at Sociedad before finding the net three times at the end of the clash. The respect from both teams means we might see a cagier game than the odds suggest.
BTTS
Are both teams going to find the net in the Madrid derby? The odds suggest that this will happen. The three matches between the pair all ended with a BTTS Yes outcome. Not only that, there were some high-octane encounters. The previous meeting was a 3-2 March success for Real Madrid at the Bernabeu where seventeen shots on target were registered throughout proceedings.
There was a Super Cup win at the Estadio Riyadh Air Metropolitano for Real Madrid when they obliged with a 2-1 victory and the first engagement was a crazy 5-2 success for Atleti. There might have been a time when Simeone and Mourinho cancelled each other out and aimed to keep things tight, although these days appear to be gone.
If you look at the past fourteen matches between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, thirteen clashes have seen a BTTS Yes outcome. It's therefore likely that this will happen. It's likely to be a selection that features heavily in La Liga Bet Builders and there's the option to combine it with a team to claim three points.
First Goalscorer
You generally don't need to look too far down the scoring charts to find Kylian Mbappe's name in La Liga. The Frenchman has racked up six goals for Real Madrid thus far and there was an additional goal against Inter. The former Paris Saint-Germain man was able to pilfer an early-season hat-trick against Real Sociedad and more recently, he has secured two goals against Rayo Vallecano.
Mbappe is certainly worth considering for Bet Builders, with Jude Bellingham averaging a goal per two games. The England star is operating in a strong attacking position for his club right now and he's demonstrated for club and country that he has the habit of scoring in important games. Surely it's a matter of time before Yan Diomande opens his Real Madrid account and perhaps this is the game where it happens.
Alex Baena began the season with three goals in as many games. He notched a brace away to Sevilla after netting against Malaga. It's been a handful of matches without finding the net and perhaps there are better alternatives. Alejandro Grimaldo might end up on spot kick duties and manager's son Giuliano Simeone has a couple of goals on the board already.
