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How accurate are the UEFA Nations League odds?

The closing prices of 439 finished games since Wed 1 Jun 2022, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

439 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 57% 251 of 439 games
  • Market Brier score 0.527 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 93.9% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 439 Wed 1 Jun 2022 to Tue 6 Oct 2026

2 of the 441 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 3.8% of 105 selections 10-20% chance: happened 13.8% of 218 selections 20-30% chance: happened 26.0% of 388 selections 30-40% chance: happened 32.7% of 251 selections 40-50% chance: happened 43.1% of 102 selections 50-60% chance: happened 58.1% of 93 selections 60-70% chance: happened 67.1% of 70 selections 70-80% chance: happened 78.7% of 47 selections 80-90% chance: happened 92.3% of 39 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 105 6.8% 3.8% -3.0 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 218 15.5% 13.8% -1.7 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 388 25.6% 26.0% +0.4 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 251 33.9% 32.7% -1.2 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 102 44.9% 43.1% -1.8 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 93 55.1% 58.1% +3.0 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 70 64.2% 67.1% +2.9 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 47 74.5% 78.7% +4.2 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 39 84.6% 92.3% +7.7 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 44.3% 41.9% -2.4 pts
Draw 24.6% 24.4% -0.2 pts
Away win 31.1% 33.7% +2.6 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 439 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 424 0.525 -0.001 93.8%
Bet365 272 0.547 +0.002 93.9%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are UEFA Nations League odds?
Across 439 finished UEFA Nations League games since 2022, the closing favourite won 57% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 44.3% on average and home wins happened 41.9% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.527 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.525. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 6.1% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the UEFA Nations League page, every game behind these figures in the UEFA Nations League results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.