Italy have failed to qualify for the past three World Cups and Roberto Mancini can ill-afford for his team to miss out for a fourth consecutive occasion. The manager will be aiming to build a squad capable of being competitive in the Nations League, European Championship and consequently the big tournament further down the line.
The Azzurri are warm favourites to topple a Belgian side who are looking to start a new lease of life under Mark van Bommel. The Red Devils can still call upon Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, although there are several youthful players in the group. Belgium did make the World Cup quarter final stage so there's a solid platform on which to build.
Italy v Belgium Betting Markets
Belgium are not in the habit of losing football matches. They were on a big unbeaten run and made some heartening progress in the 2026 World Cup before being beaten 2-1 by Spain. It was only a late Mikel Merino goal that separated the Red Devils from the world champions. Before that, there had been some free-scoring victories against United States, Senegal and New Zealand.
Rudi Garcia has made way for Mark van Bommel, with the Dutchman having previously had spells with PSV, Wolfsburg and Antwerp. He was a no-nonsense midfielder who will demand plenty from his squad, although the Belgians are big outsiders to claim a victory here. Odds of 3.10 suggest that the visitors only have a 33% chance of landing a win in this clash.
Italy are a difficult team to work out. They had a non-appearance at the World Cup for the third tournament running. Roberto Mancini will be bidding to get things right after the humiliation of losing to Bosnia in the play-offs. Since then, there have been a couple of nondescript wins away to Luxembourg and Greece which didn't really tell us anything.
The Azzurri are trading at odds of 2.15 to win this clash in Rome. The main reason for considering a bet on them is that they have home advantage and also have a competitive squad of players. The majority of the squad play for Serie A clubs, with forwards including Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean. There's also a young Inter Milan talent in the form of Pio Esposito.
With question marks over both teams, we're leaning towards the draw as the best betting option. It's an outcome which would satisfy both managers, with France regarded as the strongest team in the section and Turkey potentially the whipping boys of the section. Both managers will be mindful that there are four games in the space of a few days.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is slightly more likely than Under 2.5 Goals according to the Nations League betting sites. Several of Belgium's World Cup matches went over the 2.5 goals line although it remains to be seen whether Mark van Bommel will want to play attacking football in Rome, with the Dutch manager potentially aiming to build on a solid base.
That said, it does appear that the defensive department is the weakest area for the Red Devils, with Timothy Castagne the only one who has surpassed fifty caps. Italy will want to make amends for their summer of disappointment by putting on a good display of football, with Mancini aiming for his team to fire in a few goals.
The flip side is that both teams might be cagey in a bid to avoid the first game being a losing one. The past four matches involving Italy have involved two goals or less.
BTTS
BTTS Yes is trading at 1.66 and we think it's worth considering this option when it comes to Bet Builders. Although Italy have not enjoyed a huge amount of success in recent times, they have been finding the net on a consistent basis. They found the net in their two summer friendly encounters and the same thing happened in a string of matches before that clash.
As the home team, the onus is on the Azzurri to attack and score goals. It's hard to see how a modest Belgian defence might keep the Italians at bay for the entire ninety minutes. Not for the first time, the visitors might deploy attack as the best form of defence and we only need to look at the Red Devils' games during the World Cup to see that BTTS Yes is a likely outcome.
You can potentially look to place an Italy v Belgium Bet Builder where BTTS Yes is included as one of the options. There's not a huge deal of jeopardy when it comes to the opening clash of a Nations League encounter where the two managers are wary of affording too many minutes to players at this stage of the domestic campaign.
First Goalscorer
Pio Esposito could end up being the new star of the Italian football team. The 21-year-old proved to be the match winner in the two Azzurri friendlies over the summer, notching against both Luxembourg and Greece. That means he has an enviable return of five goals from nine international appearances, with the Inter star having benefitted from a loan spell at Spezia.
Atalanta's Giacomo Raspadori has a more modest international record with just eleven goals across forty-six matches. There's also Moise Kean who has secured thirteen goals in twenty-six games, with the Como forward capable of scoring different types of goals. At a bigger price, Lazio's Davide Frattesi has shown an eye for goal for his own country.
Romelu Lukaku spent much of the 2026 World Cup struggling to be fully fit for the Red Devils, although the 33-year-old could be deployed against opponents for whom he knows all too well. He has racked up ninety-three goals across 132 appearances, with Leandro Trossard also a menace from wide positions.
Kevin De Bruyne has scored thirty-eight times for his country and the Napoli midfielder offers a threat from range. There's also Atalanta's Charles De Ketelaere who can build on his nine Belgian goals already.
