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How accurate are the USA - MLS odds?

The closing prices of 2,000 finished games since Sun 26 Feb 2023, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

2,000 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 48% 968 of 2,000 games
  • Market Brier score 0.612 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 94.2% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 2,000 Sun 26 Feb 2023 to Thu 15 Oct 2026

Market chance against what happened

10-20% chance: happened 14.3% of 587 selections 20-30% chance: happened 26.5% of 2,746 selections 30-40% chance: happened 35.3% of 955 selections 40-50% chance: happened 39.6% of 811 selections 50-60% chance: happened 54.7% of 603 selections 60-70% chance: happened 68.8% of 234 selections 70-80% chance: happened 79.5% of 44 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 587 17.0% 14.3% -2.7 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 2,746 25.1% 26.5% +1.4 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 955 34.7% 35.3% +0.6 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 811 44.8% 39.6% -5.2 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 603 54.6% 54.7% +0.1 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 234 63.8% 68.8% +5.0 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 44 72.7% 79.5% +6.8 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 47.8% 46.0% -1.8 pts
Draw 24.7% 26.2% +1.5 pts
Away win 27.5% 27.8% +0.3 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 2,000 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Bet365 1,982 0.613 +0.001 94.4%
Unibet 1,778 0.616 -0.001 94.1%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are USA MLS odds?
Across 2,000 finished USA MLS games since 2023, the closing favourite won 48% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 47.8% on average and home wins happened 46.0% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.612 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Bet365 at 0.613. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.8% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the USA - MLS page, every game behind these figures in the USA - MLS results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.