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How accurate are the France - LNB Elite odds?

The closing prices of 1,253 finished games since Fri 1 Oct 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,253 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 50% 628 of 1,253 games
  • Market Brier score 0.577 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 95.6% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,253 Fri 1 Oct 2021 to Sun 1 Nov 2026

302 of the 1,555 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

10-20% chance: happened 49.6% of 129 selections 20-30% chance: happened 52.2% of 253 selections 30-40% chance: happened 50.8% of 362 selections 40-50% chance: happened 48.6% of 471 selections 50-60% chance: happened 51.3% of 507 selections 60-70% chance: happened 49.2% of 362 selections 70-80% chance: happened 48.0% of 254 selections 80-90% chance: happened 50.0% of 128 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 129 15.6% 49.6% +34.0 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 253 25.4% 52.2% +26.8 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 362 34.7% 50.8% +16.1 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 471 45.0% 48.6% +3.6 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 507 54.6% 51.3% -3.3 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 362 65.3% 49.2% -16.1 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 254 74.6% 48.0% -26.6 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 128 84.4% 50.0% -34.4 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 50.8% 60.4% +9.6 pts
Away win 49.2% 39.6% -9.6 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,253 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 747 0.439 +0.005 95.1%
Bet365 999 0.620 +0.003 96.0%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are France LNB Elite odds?
Across 1,253 finished France LNB Elite games since 2021, the closing favourite won 50% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 50.8% on average and home wins happened 60.4% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.577 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.439. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 4.4% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the France - LNB Elite page, every game behind these figures in the France - LNB Elite results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.