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What the market got wrong this week

The biggest upsets of the seven days to 16 October 2026 in the top competitions, against the closing prices at the bookmakers we compare, how often the favourites won, and whether the price moves before the start called the results. A record of what happened, not a tip.

The biggest upsets

last 7 days
GameWinner's priceFavourite
Inter 3-4 Club Brugge Tue 13 Oct, Champions League, Football 12.00Club Brugge, Bet365 about 81%
Viking 3-3 Bayern Munich Tue 13 Oct, Champions League, Football 11.00the draw, Unibet about 89%
Augsburg 2-2 Bayern Munich Sat 10 Oct, Germany - Bundesliga, Football 9.50the draw, Bet365 about 88%
Toledo 8-23 Buffalo U Sat 10 Oct, NCAA Football, American Football 9.00Buffalo U, Bet365 about 93%
Pick Szeged 35-35 Sporting Clube Sat 10 Oct, Champions League, Handball 8.50the draw, Unibet about 52%
Füchse Berlin 36-37 TBV Lemgo Sun 11 Oct, Germany - Bundesliga, Handball 8.00TBV Lemgo, Unibet about 87%
Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg Sat 10 Oct, Germany - Bundesliga, Football 7.00Hamburg, Bet365 about 71%
Montpellier 30-38 Skanderborg Thu 15 Oct, Champions League, Handball 6.10Skanderborg, Unibet about 83%
ERC Ingolstadt 2-3 Löwen Frankfurt Sun 11 Oct, Germany - DEL, Ice Hockey 5.40the draw, Unibet about 68%
AC Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom Thu 15 Oct, UEFA Europa League, Football 5.20the draw, Unibet about 70%
Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen Fri 9 Oct, Germany - Bundesliga, Football 5.20the draw, Unibet about 75%
TB Lightning 4-3 SEA Kraken Fri 16 Oct, NHL, Ice Hockey 5.10the draw, Unibet about 65%
FLO Panthers 3-2 VAN Canucks Fri 16 Oct, NHL, Ice Hockey 4.90the draw, Unibet about 65%
California 25-20 Virginia Tech Sat 10 Oct, NCAA Football, American Football 4.60California, Unibet about 83%
Florida 19-38 South Carolina Sat 10 Oct, NCAA Football, American Football 4.60South Carolina, Bet365 about 83%
CBS Blue J 3-2 PIT Penguins Sat 10 Oct, NHL, Ice Hockey 4.50the draw, Unibet about 41%
CHI Blackhawks 4-3 Winnipeg Jets Fri 16 Oct, NHL, Ice Hockey 4.40the draw, Unibet about 45%
Wolfsburg 2-1 Krefeld Pinguine Thu 15 Oct, Germany - DEL, Ice Hockey 4.40the draw, Unibet about 53%
MON Canadiens 1-0 DET Red Wings Sun 11 Oct, NHL, Ice Hockey 4.35the draw, Unibet about 55%
Manchester Utd 1-1 Tottenham Sat 10 Oct, England - Premier League, Football 4.35the draw, Unibet about 58%

The winners with the longest best closing price, each the last price before the start at the bookmakers we compare; "Favourite" is the chance the favourite's average closing price gave it, margin included. Football and other draw sports settle on the regular-time score. Open a game for every bookmaker's closing price.

The market this week

last 7 days, top competitions
  • Closing favourites won 61% 176 of 290 games
  • Odds-on favourites won 65% 147 of 225 games
  • Average closing payout 94.2% best prices across the bookmakers listed here
  • Biggest upset 12.00 Club Brugge won at Inter, Football. Closing price at Bet365.
SportFavourites wonBiggest upset
Football 62% 51 of 82 Inter 3-4 Club Brugge Champions League · Club Brugge closed at 12.00 at Bet365
American Football 61% 46 of 75 Toledo 8-23 Buffalo U NCAA Football · Buffalo U closed at 9.00 at Bet365
Ice Hockey 47% 28 of 59 ERC Ingolstadt 2-3 Löwen Frankfurt Germany - DEL · The draw closed at 5.40 at Unibet
Basketball 76% 29 of 38 Valencia 88-91 Maccabi Tel Aviv Euroleague · Maccabi Tel Aviv closed at 3.75 at Unibet
Baseball 56% 10 of 18 KIA Tigers 1-4 Lotte Giants Korea - Korean League · Lotte Giants closed at 3.50 at Unibet
Handball 67% 12 of 18 Pick Szeged 35-35 Sporting Clube Champions League · The draw closed at 8.50 at Unibet

Finished games of the last seven days in the top competitions, settled on the regular-time score for sports with a draw, against each bookmaker's last price before kick-off. The favourite is the outcome with the lowest average closing price.

Did the price moves call it?

712 games since 26 September 2026

When a price shortened 5% or more before the start, that side won 38% of the time; the closing prices gave it 38.5%. Sides that drifted 5% or more won 28%, against 29.9% at the close.

Price moveOutcomesClose saidHappenedDiff
Shortened 10% or more 171 34.0% 35.1% +1.1 pts
Shortened 5% to 10% 203 42.2% 40.4% -1.8 pts
Moved less than 5% 1,079 40.4% 41.1% +0.7 pts
Drifted 5% to 10% 209 35.0% 32.5% -2.5 pts
Drifted 10% or more 234 25.4% 23.9% -1.5 pts

Early sample. Our price history starts on 26 September 2026, so this covers 712 finished games in the top competitions and grows every day; a band needs 20 outcomes to show. Each outcome's move is its average price across the bookmakers pricing it at both ends, from the first price we recorded to the last before the start. "Close said" is the chance its closing price gave it with the margin taken out; "Happened" is how often it won. Moves are already in the closing price, so a band that beats "Close said" is where the late money kept being right.

Upsets and price moves FAQ

What was the biggest upset this week?
Club Brugge won at Inter 3-4 in the Champions League: Club Brugge closed at 12.00 at Bet365, the longest winning price in the top competitions in the seven days to 16 October 2026.
How often do favourites win?
In the seven days to 16 October 2026 the closing favourite won 176 of 290 games in the top competitions (61%), and odds-on favourites 147 of 225 (65%). Football favourites win less often than in two-way sports because the draw takes a share.
Do price moves before kick-off predict the result?
Since 26 September 2026, outcomes whose price shortened 5% or more between our first record and kick-off won 38% of the time, and the closing prices gave them 38.5% on average. The closing price already includes the move, so the question is whether those outcomes beat their closing chance: so far they won about as often as it said. It is an early sample (374 outcomes).

Prices moving now are on the market movers and outright movers pages; check one price's closing line value with the calculator.