Despite winning their last five qualifying matches, Greece missed out on automatic qualification to Bosnia-Herzegovina who had the same points total but a better goal difference and head-to-head record. Greece have been to two World Cups before (1994 and 2010) though they were the surprises winners of the European Championship in 2004 so they have some recent pedigree, and Fernando Santos’s men are ranked 14 places above their opponents in FIFA’s latest list.
Romania, meanwhile, have been to the World Cup seven times, making it to the quarterfinals in 1994, though their current team cannot compare to that inspired by Gheorghe Hagi in the 1990s. Not to say Victor Piturca’s side do not have a chance against Greece, just that they will be up against it.
Greece are priced at around 4/5 to qualify over the two legs and we feel that is a decent price for a well-drilled and organised side who are unlikely to panic or give much away. Although Greece have only beaten Romania five times in the 30 meetings between them, we think they certainly have the edge these days and they are worth backing at betting odds of 11/10 with Sportingbet to win the first leg on home soil. We fancy a narrow victory at home which is followed by a grinding draw in the second, with Greece sneaking through to Brazil.
In the correct score market we think the Greeks will do just enough, with 1-0 offering some appeal, but backing them to win the first match at 11/10 looks very good value to us.